Under The Covers (Week 3)

Under The Covers

Week Three

By Jim Adams

Baltimore (-3) at New England

Baltimore is coming off a collapse of epic proportions. They blew a 35-14 fourth quarter lead and eventually lost to a dangerous Miami Dolphins team. Afterwards, Lamar Jackson even seemed to congratulate the Dolphins of twitter, causing panic throughout Ravens fandom and raising speculation that he may have designs on playing elsewhere next season. The Baltimore D was consistently beaten downfield, allowing over 200 yards and four touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone. The secondary, after losing Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens, was particularly deplorable. They suffered numerous communications breakdowns as they were continuously gashed by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Besides Lamar Jackson, the running game, or more accurately the lack thereof, should concern everyone. On top of all this garbage, Jackson was spotted wearing an arm sleeve on his throwing shoulder during the open portion of Wednesday’s practice, arousing suspicion that his end zone tumble may have caused a more severe injury than was first reported. Soooo, obviously I won’t be risking my hard earned dough on the Ravens this weekend, right? Well, hold your damn horses, damnit! As Omar Little famously opined, (may he rest in peace) “it’s all in the game, yo.” This is the NFL for God’s sake. There is parity. With all the talent in this league, blown leads happen. Every week is basically a new season. Let’s not forget the first half of football when Baltimore was scoring at will and frustrating Miami’s potent offense. That still counts, as far as this pundit knows.

Now, allow me to detail my reasons for backing the Ravens after tearing them a new starfish. First, I’m a worm. I’m a ratty, fetid dolt. But even more than that, this current New England team is truly a mess. Like, legitimately disgusting. If Bahston Billy wasn’t trolling the sidelines in a gas station sweatshirt and if Pat the Patriot wasn’t snapping the pigskin chilling on the side of his helmet, (a guy can dream) you might not be able to distinguish this iteration of the Pats from the Cleveland Browns or the Carolina Panthers. They were defeated by a Miami team, whose offense is still learning to play together, in a game that really wasn’t as close as its 20-7 final score might indicate. Mustering 281 yards of offense against a defense that was consistently scored upon by this Baltimore Ravens team is scary as hell. They then proceeded to squeak by a Steelers team led by Mitchell “The Biscuit” Trubisky courtesy of a late, go ahead touchdown. The offense was again punchless, unable to move the ball, and the protection afforded to Mac “The Knife” Jones won’t be adequate enough to slow the upcoming Ravens. Unless Devante Parker can become the vertical weapon he was viewed to be when he signed in free agency, I have a really hard time envisioning this offense moving the ball with any success on Sunday.

Baltimore’s offense has at times looked electric thus far, combining for 66 points through it’s first two contests. The one area that they have really struggled, running the football, will most likely be getting a huge shot in the arm with the return of J.K. Dobbins. While relying on the likes of Kenyan Drake, Justice Hill, and Mike Freaking Davis, Raven’s backs have combined to carry the rock 30 times for 82 yards. That’s ludicrous… and they’re still scoring 33 points per game. Getting that area shored up will allow Baltimore to control the clock late, while presumably opening up more opportunities for Bateman and Andrews down the field. Combine this with an embarrassed and hopefully healthier secondary, and Baltimore is the easy pick.

Fading home dogs is usually a cardinal sin in sports wagering, a fact my partner Jefferson Karps never lets me forget, but this week Ol’ Jimmy implores you to look past it and make some dough on Baltimore (-3).

Cincinnati (-6) at New York

Much like the stock market, which I occasionally participate in and lose most of my disposable (and not so disposable) income, being successful in sports betting is mainly about getting value on an asset while it is at its lowest worth and riding it until it makes its way back to its true, fair rate. Now, the Bengals have looked rough… downright putrid at times. They’ve had all sorts of issues protecting Joe Burrow. Through two games it appears as if the Super Bowl hangover is alive and well. This is reflected by the team being only 6 point favorites against a rebuilding Jets team that has been destroyed by Baltimore and needed an epic comeback against an equally disgusting Cleveland group. You might say that the Bengals have reached their lowest possible value, mightn’t you? Wink. Now is the time to jump on and make some dough on the way back to the top.

The Jets…Well, the Jets are currently quarterbacked by Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco. The original unibrow. The character who turned throwing a ball on his knees 50 yards into an end zone at the combine into an NFL career. He’s Oog. You know, from ATHF. He’s a mook. He’s not an NFL caliber starting quarterback. How is he still doing this? If someone told me he retired in 2017 I’d nod knowingly, just assuming he had. My mind is blown. But, moving on. This is a Jets team that is clearly rebuilding and is committed to having another top 5 pick next spring. To be sure, Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, and Elijah Moore are certainly an exciting group of receivers. Rookie running back Breece Hall has all of the physical attributes covered in a bell cow running back… but ahh… Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco is their starting QB. Kudos for getting an amazing win in Cleveland but that’s probably going to be the high point of this young team’s season. The future is bright, but they’re not there yet… Joe Flacco.

It’s not just about the Jets though. This Cincy team really, really talented. Even though that hasn’t proven to be the case through two weeks of football, it really is only a matter of time. This is an offense that averaged over 27 points per game last year. The one area they targeted to improve over the off season was the offensive line. Unfortunately, that particular segment of the offense takes the longest time to become a cohesive unit. Consequently, Joe Burrow has been running for his freaking life every snap. Fortunately, the Jets defensive front is not Dallas, or Pittsburgh with a healthy T.J. Watt. The Jets have combined for three sacks this season. Sooo yeah, if there ever was a dream match-up for an offensive line searching for continuity, this would be that match-up. What else? Oh, Joe Burrow is sick. Joe Mixon is a do-it-all, explosive back. Chase and Higgins (Not Tattoo) are arguably the most dynamite receiving pair in the entire league. The defense is still electric and capable of wreakin havoc on any opposing offense.

If Cincinnati can finally protect Burrow’s can, they beat any team in the NFL…and this week they’re playing the Jets… and ahh, Joe Flacco. Cincy gets its swagger back in New York and everyone thanks Ol’ Jimmy for the free dough. Cincy (-6).

Green Bay at Tampa Bay Over (41.5)

Paul Maclean, briefly taken aback before hastily processing his brother Norman’s scathing assessment of his escalating gambling predicament, that Paul was “in debt up to his goddamn neck”, simply replied “Norm, it’s my debt, okay? It’s my debt!” A River Runs Through It cuts to the core of me with its inescapable truth that some people, no matter how much you wish it wasn’t so, simply cannot be helped. Man, if Paul only had to opportunity to bet the over on this upcoming Tampa Bay/Packers tilt! I feel everything would have turned out differently. Ahh well. So it goes.

In this forthcoming battle of the “Grey Beards” Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, fresh off a win over the Bears, travel to Tampa to battle Tom Brady and the Bucs. The market seems to have once again overreacted to the absence of a few skill position players. Mike Evans will miss the contest after being suspended for fighting…by the Packer’s own Jon Runyan Jr’s old man, Jon Runyan Sr., the NFC’s VP of rules and policy administration. It smells. Smells bad. Smells real bad. Okay, enough with the “smells” but doesn’t this constitute a huge conflict of interest? Not that I’m complaining as a Packers fan, but it’s just…not right. Anywho, regardless, Tommy B.will be without his favorite receiver, and warm, comfy security blanket. If that weren’t concerning enough for the Bucs, Chris Godwin still isn’t practicing because of a hammy, and the seemingly perpetually questionable Julio Jones didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday because of a knee issue. Well, to this I say, “Who cares? Who cares, dammit.” This line is reflecting the possibility that Godwin and Jones will miss the contest. But, Ol’ Jimmy has a sneaking suspicion that Jones is closer to probable than questionable and Godwin is going to give it a real go on Sunday afternoon. Don’t ask me how I’m privy to this information. You don’t want to know. It involved Bruce Arians, myself, and a superman costume, and it is not pleasant. Or hygienic. But, I’m confident we’ll have at least one of them active on Sunday. But, even if they’re both relegated to the sidelines, Tom Brady will do his Tom Brady thing and make Russell Gage, Scotty Miller, and…checks notes…Cole Beasley?!? look like legitimate NFL receivers. Throw in a little Cam Brate and a lot of Leonard Fournette, and the Bucs should have some success moving the ball against a talented but inconsistent Green Bay defense.

As far as the Packers offense, they finally showed a pulse last Sunday night against an overmatched Bears team. Because “sexy Matt” LaFleur, or the tender flower as my producer Ryan Larsen refers to him, treats week one as the final game of the preseason, we weren’t really able to properly assess the running game until last week. They looked committed and ready to run to set up play action Aaron Rodgers style. Couple that with the return of Allen Lazard, and panic has subsided in Wisconsin and things felt much more Matt LaFleur…ish.

Now, Tampa and their stout run defense will pose a serious threat to A.J. Dillon (that son of a bitch) finding success on the ground, but with Elgton Jenkins finally back in the fold to stabilize this young line, I believe they’ll be up to the challenge. The game will be a bit of a grind with both teams attempting to establish their running identities, but like AROD, Tommy, and unfortunately yours truly, Wonderboy Jim Adams, it’ll reach the low to mid 40’s. Green Bay/Tampa Bay over (41.5).