Week 5 Dunder the Covers
By Jim Adams

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Is there anything more depressing than being a fan of the New York Jets? Being from Wisconsin, and

therefore being a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan, I can relate to the apathy and incredibly low

expectations that come with cheering on a hopeless franchise. From the 80’s through 1991, I just

assumed we’d be crappy.

With the likes of Randy Wright at the helm, my favorite team would slog

through 4-12 seasons seemingly every year, playing three “home” games in an old baseball stadium in a

different city... just because. Just because... it didn’t matter. Nobody really cared. Sure, there was a

glimmer of hope each time we’d start a rebuild, roughly every three years or so. We’d strive to be

respectable, especially when we faced our bully of a big brother across the border, and wonder how

great it would be if Tony Mandarich or Brent Fullwood could lift us back to our glory of days gone by

long ago. Soooooo….I get it. But, enough about the 1980’s Packers. Now I’m angry that this iteration of

the New York Jets made me relive that awful time in my life. Because, well, they’re so goddamn sad and

hopeless. The Jets suck at drafting. The closest they’ve come to a franchise quarterback is Chad

Pennington. He couldn’t throw the ball twenty yards, but he was a gamer. And that’s the pinnacle of

their drafting history. From taking Kyle Brady over Warren Sapp, to falling in love with Vernon Gholston

after a combine showing, to handing the reigns to first rounders Mark Sanchez and Sam Darnold, they

can’t evaluate talent. They share a homefield with another team. They have the most generic helmets in

the league. And, maybe worst of all, they were once coached by Rich Kotite, the biggest nerd/asshole in

the world. But, maybe, just maybe, this latest group, led by Zack Wilson, Breece Hall, and Garrett

Wilson, can be the guys that turn the whole thing around! I just wouldn’t get my hopes up.

On Sunday the Jets welcome the Dolphins to town in and AFC East matchup. The Dolphins lost Tua

Tagovailoa to a concussion during a 27-15 defeat in Cincinnati last Thursday night, and will now turn to

Teddy Bridge (over troubled) water..it works, alright? The fact that the Dolphins are only 3.5 point road

favorites here reflects this, but is it a wacky overreaction my friends? Jimbo thinks it is. Teddy

Bridgewater is not Tua, but he is a capable NFL quarterback and filled in admirably last week without the

benefit of first team practice reps. Bridgewater loves to silence all of you doubters, with a record of 42-

21 all time ats, and 24-6 all time ats on the road. That’s a huge sample size, as well as totally freaking

absurd. The guy is winning two out of every three against the freaking spread! Against very good

competition, the Dolphins have thrown for 1228 yards through the air through four games, and this

week The Teddy Bear will be slinging to Tyreek and The Duck against a Jets pass defense that is really,

really awful. After four weeks the Jets D has surrendered seven passing touchdowns while allowing 7.3

yards per completion and a 38.7 first down percentage. The Jets will try to lean on their burgeoning run

game, but Miami is coming off a game where they limited Cincinnati to 67 rushing yards on 30 carries.

The Dolphins will dare The Zach Attack to beat them through the air, and will predictably beat the hell

out of the Jets offensive line and force a handful of turnovers. Miami lost a road game to a really good

Bengals team, but come on, they’re still the crazy talented team that beat the Bills, Ravens, and Pats.

They weren’t going to go undefeated for crying out loud.

This line is a gift. This is one of the better buy low opportunities of the young NFL season. Miami is 7-1

ats over it’s last nine games against the Jets, while New York is 1-7 ats versus their last eight AFC East

opponents. The Dolphins win easily, Tua gets to rest his bruised brain, and Jets fans can once again

begin to slip into the comfy robes of apathy, and look forward to the hope of another high draft pick.

Dolphins -3.5

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

I recently asked a friend of mine, “who’s more handsome and boyishly youthful, prime Brad Pitt in

Legends of the Fall, or Trevor Lawrence?”. She said, “Brad Pitt, obviously”, but there was a split second

of hesitation, and that pretty much tells you all you have to know. While nobody, ever, will unseat 1994

Brad Pitt as the King of Hunk Town, the fact that it’s a legitimate comparison elevates Lawrence into

“Legend” status. He’s the future NFL golden boy, and he’s pissed. Pissed my friends. Pissed.

After surging out to a 14-0 lead against the previously 3-0 Eagles last Sunday, things went very, very

wrong. Trevor (the only ugly thing about the guy is his first name…Trevor?) proceeded to commit five

turnovers, including four lost fumbles. That’s so flukey. He doesn’t fumble, much less four times in one

game. The Eagles defense is very good, but Ol Jimmy thinks there was something else at play here. Late

night at the club? A fight with his girlfriend? A shouting match with his level four hair stylist?? Something

was very off, and it’s not too likely to happen in back to back weeks. Even with last week’s debacle,

Lawrence is still sporting an 8-2 touchdown to interception ratio and carrying a 99.9 quarterback rating.

He’s a generational talent, he’s finally surrounded by an adult head coach, and he has some fancy new

weapons at his disposal that are new to the team this year. Christian Kirk has been the downfield threat

Jacksonville was missing in 2021, Travis Etienne is healthy and providing a pass catching presence out of

the backfield, and Zay Jones is thriving in his (presumably) last chance to make a name for himself in the

league. Zay Jones. How cool is that? It’s always exciting when a former first round bust gets his shit

together and becomes a legit player before his time passes him by. Anywho. Add them to workhorse

James Robinson, who will be force fed this week against Houston’s dead last run defense after not being

involved enough against Philly, and the offense should roll.

Houston, well, Houston is a mess. The front office has finally committed to a full on rebuild, and the

results have been sadly predictable. This team plays hard for Lovie Smith, and Davis Mills is a scrapper,

but the lack of talent and playmakers on both sides of the ball will be stark on Sunday. Houston is

currently 24th in yards per play, while ranking 22nd in opponents yards per play, and are 31st in third down

conversion percentage, while sitting 18th in opponent third down conversion percentage. Jacksonville is

averaging 28 points per game while allowing 16.3 points per game. Plus, these Texans are just 2-10

STRAIGHT UP in it’s last 12 road games. This is easy money. (Rodney Dangerfield) This is Lawrence vs.

Mills. This is Pederson vs Lovie. This could get ugly. Trevor comes back strong and goes bananas against

this Texans D. ….he’s a handsome man.

Jacksonville -7

Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants in London, England

Another weird London game, where our central time zone start time is 8:30 am and British fans can’t

wait to watch and wildly cheer on field goal attempts. Damn freaky Brits. We kicked your asses out in

1783 and we saved your asses in two world wars... now leave Jimmy alone! Asses. But, I digress. The Pack

come into this contest off an ugly, grinding game against a Pats team quarterbacked by Bailey (Frank)

Zappe, while New York defeated the Chicago Bears, 20-12. Neither team inspired much confidence last

week…and yet…it feels like Green Bay is close. They’ve been winning ugly, but they’ve been winning,

and that’s all that matters in this league. Green Bay’s young receiving corps, headed by rookies Romeo

Doubs and Christian Watson, is finally starting to make some plays. Growing pains will continue to be

part of the process, but the potential is evident. Allen Lazard, fresh off a huge six catch, 116 yard

performance, all while tossing his cookies in front of the entire country, has emerged as Rodgers’ go to

guy and a bonafide number one receiver. It also doesn’t hurt that favorites in London games are 10-0-1

straight up since we started this useless trans Atlantic trip nonsense. The Pack is 11-4 ATS (against the spread) against their

last 15 NFC opponents, and they’re currently sixth in total offense through four games. Green Bay’s red

zone efficiency is the only thing holding this team back right now, and this matchup could cure that

ailment. Also in the Pack’s favor is that favorites of -3 or higher are 12-6 against the spread in overseas

games, and in all international games the favorites are 23-12 ATS.

The Giants have issues. While they entered the season lacking in offense playmakers, the few options

they did have are slowly being decimated by a slew of injuries. The wide receiver unit is a disaster, with

Sterling Shepard being lost for the year with a torn ACL, Kenny Golladay continuing to be ineffective

before a sprained MCL has left him unable to play this Sunday, Kadarius Toney, 2021 first round pick

who, because of injuries and performance issues, hasn’t yet panned out, and Wan’Dale Robinson, a

2022 first round pick who has missed the first four games with a knee injury. One of the season’s early

bright spots, the much maligned Daniel Jones, was forced out of last week’s contest with a high ankle

sprain. This is doubly problematic because Jones’ backup, Tyrod Taylor, hasn’t practiced this week while

being in the concussion protocol. Now, fortunately Jones was able to put in a limited practice this week,

but will he be able to be successful against Rashan Gary and an opportunistic Green Bay defense? Much

of Jones’ early season success this year has been predicated on his scrambling prowess, so it’s fair to

wonder how that aspect of his game might be affected.

This Giants team is 3-1, but have faced the likes of Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush, and Justin Fields. They

haven’t played a team with a competent offensive line, and the talent and experience at quarterback

from Aaron Rodgers. They are 0-5 against the spread in their last five road games…and I guess this is

considered a road game? They’re in England for cripe’s sake. I mean, they’re not very good away from

home... yeah, let’s stick with that. Aaron Jones, coming off a 16-110 game, and THE Quadzilla are running

the ball well, and the Giants enter this week ranked 27 th in the league in rushing defense, allowing 5.08

yards per carry. The one area they may have an advantage on Green Bay, running the ball, may not be

available as I believe the Packers will stack the box and make a hobbled Jones beat them by throwing it

to a depleted group of receivers.

I mean, the Packers are going to win. But, if you’re too frightened of the large line, you have my

permission to take the Packers straight coupled with an under of 41. The game might be a little sloppy,

and weirdo things can happen in faraway, neutral sites, so eliminating some of the big spread is cool,

too. The Giants have yet to yield 20 points or more in any game this year, and both the Giants and

Packers are averaging less than 40 combined points per contest. Alsoooo, the under is 7-0 in the Giants’

last seven games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous contest, and it’s 4-0 in the Packers’

last four games against an NFC opponent. Oh, plus, the Giants have no decent offensive skill players

outside of Saquan Barkley. The under is golden, but, I’m taking the Pack -8. Do one, or do the other, but

please win some money with me this weekend.

Green Bay -8